The recent banking failures could be the beginning of what’s been called the most anticipated recession ever. A lack of confidence in the system can spread quickly. The fact that SVB failed in just a matter of hours was shocking and has never been seen before. The hope is the problem does not cascade to other banks and other parts of the economy.
With the start to 2022 almost 1 month in, it’s become clear this year won’t be like the previous one. We continue to let our indicators and the charts guide our decision making. We’ve become much more cautious with what we’re seeing, but will be ready to deploy cash and reposition portfolios as indicators change. Risks affecting the market continue to rise, and we’ll see if the market can eventually get back to climbing that wall of worry.
In our latest Situation Report, our Chief Investment Officer Jim Reardon breaks down a 2021 year in review. He dives into major topics of the past year such as inflation, supply chain problems, the worker shortage, cryptocurrency, and ESG Investing.
While the stock market is entering a very strong calendar period historically, it has been a turbulent and highly volatile past week. December has historically been one of the best times to be in the market, as we get what many market commentators call a “Santa Claus Rally.” According to data from Bespoke Investment Group, the S&P has had a positive return in December 74% of the time since 1928, higher than any other month.
While we are seeing conflicting signals, many of our overall short and long-term indicators have remained positive. With that being the case, we have continued giving the market the benefit of the doubt. We’ll continue to monitor market conditions, ready to make changes when the market inevitably comes under pressure.