Following another sharp increase in consumer prices, the US inflation-rate climbed to 7.5% - a 40-year high. Big increases in the cost of rent, food, and energy drove the consumer price index up 0.6% in the first month of the new year. The increase greatly exceeded Wall Street's forecast of a 0.4% gain. The 7.5% surge in the cost of living in the past 12 months is the biggest since February 1982.
Along with gasoline and rent we get to add orange juice to the ever-expanding list of prices expected to skyrocket throughout the year. The January forecast for the U.S. citrus harvest is looking especially bleak for Florida orange growers. One of the results of the meager harvest would likely be rising orange juice prices.
With the start to 2022 almost 1 month in, it’s become clear this year won’t be like the previous one. We continue to let our indicators and the charts guide our decision making. We’ve become much more cautious with what we’re seeing, but will be ready to deploy cash and reposition portfolios as indicators change. Risks affecting the market continue to rise, and we’ll see if the market can eventually get back to climbing that wall of worry.
In our latest Situation Report, our Chief Investment Officer Jim Reardon breaks down a 2021 year in review. He dives into major topics of the past year such as inflation, supply chain problems, the worker shortage, cryptocurrency, and ESG Investing.
The confidence of the nation’s consumers slipped this month as the spread of Omicron and higher prices for just about everything weighed on consumer sentiment. The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Survey fell 1.4 points to 113.8 this month. Economists had forecast the index to pullback to 111.7. During the pandemic, the index reached a high of 128.9 last summer during a lull in the pandemic to a low of 85.7 at the onset.
Stunningly higher shipping costs are yet another element of the nation’s supply chain problems. Shipping costs have skyrocketed as shortages of trucks, truck drivers, warehouse workers and others constrict the shipping pipeline and raise costs.