In 2022, investors faced one of the most difficult markets in decades as the Federal Reserve’s efforts to combat the worst inflation since the 1970’s sent stocks and bonds reeling. Just how bad was it? Jim Reid, head of thematic research at Deutsche Bank, shows that 2022 experienced the worst combined total return for both stocks and bonds at least back to 1872, as far back as comparable records reach.
As the Fed continues its inflation fight, the economy continues to weaken. While the Fed may say they have a chance at a “soft landing” of the economy, history tells us the odds of that happening are not great. The economy will really begin to feel the effects of the rapid interest rate hikes early in 2023.
It is clear that the Federal Reserve is intent on bringing inflation under control with its series of rate hikes. However, what most people probably don’t realize is the rapidity with which the Federal Reserve has acted already. The Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates higher and faster than at any in the modern era.
As inflation and shortages of key components pushed the average price of a new car to all-time highs (if you could even get one), it is logical that prices on used cars would follow suit – and they did. However, the bloom is off that rose and wholesale prices of used vehicles reached their lowest level in more than a year last month as interest rate hikes raised borrowing costs and fears of an imminent recession continue to spread.
In a speech to the European Parliament this week, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated, “We do not see the components or the direction that would lead me to believe that we’ve reached peak inflation and that it’s going to decline in short order.”
As mortgage rates continue to rise and home sales continue to slow, the next leg down of a slowing real estate market has begun—contract cancellations. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has reported large drops in the traffic of prospective buyers in each of the last eight months.