So far 2024 has seen consistent higher than expected inflation numbers in several different readings. As mentioned in the newsletter at the end of 2023, the expectation was for the Federal Reserve to be cutting interest rates throughout this year as inflation continued to cool off towards the Fed’s preferred 2% target.
The market has started 2024 off continuing the trend that ended 2023. Historically, having a positive January and February portends having a positive calendar year.
As we wrap up 2023, the Federal Reserve gave the markets an early Christmas present. During their December meeting they signaled an expectation of 3 interest rate cuts coming in 2024. Both the stock market and bond market exploded higher on this news in what investors view as a welcome relief from high interest rates.
In my last newsletter I discussed some of the reasons why a year-end rally could take place in the stock market and the support levels I was watching. With where we stand today, a year-end rally may be starting this week after a further decline occurred in October.
As we begin to turn the page on another month, and another quarter, the market enters the final quarter of the year on shaky ground. As was outlined in our last report, September- a historically poor month for the market- has seen the drop in the market continue. It’s beginning to close in on levels in the S&P 500 that a typical correction would drop to.
The long-awaited correction in the market has been playing out as we near the end of August. So far as it’s played out, it appears to be just that- a correction. And not something deeper signaling another top in the market yet. Another push to new highs could be on the horizon, but historically the month of September can be tricky.